Volume 28, Issue 5 (8-2021)                   RJMS 2021, 28(5): 125-144 | Back to browse issues page

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Atashgar K, Roshandel S. Monitoring the effect of temperature on the Covid 19 pandemic using profile analysis. RJMS 2021; 28 (5) :125-144
URL: http://rjms.iums.ac.ir/article-1-6555-en.html
Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran , atashgar@iust.ac.ir
Abstract:   (1867 Views)
Background & Aims: One of the first steps taken in the epidemic of a disease such as Covid-19 in the community is to conduct an epidemiological study. In this case, the basic reproduction number (R0) index is referred to as a key term to analyze and control the pandemic condition. The fluctuation of this index really is affected by different factors. The objective of this paper is: 1) to design a functional relationship between R0 term and the temperature variable, and 2) to illustrate that the pandemic condition of a community can be monitored effectively by the profile approach. The Covid-19 virus was first detected in Wuhan, China, and has infected more than 35 million people as of this writing. In the case of Covid-19 virus, the term pandemic is used instead of epidemic after the virus has spread worldwide and has been in such a way that it has crossed several continents and has affected all countries of the world (1). One of the first measures to control the prevalence of such diseases is to conduct an epidemiological study. A key feature in epidemiological assessment and control is the Basic Reproduction Number ( ).    means that each carrier can infect an average of several others by entering an unprotected population. In epidemiology, there are several factors affecting   (2). One of the most important uncontrollable factors whose effects on the Covid-19 virus pandemic have been discussed by many researchers so far, is environment temperature (5).
Methods: The method used in this research to provide the objectives is profile monitoring. Profile monitoring is categorized in statistical approach. In this research the functional relationship (profile) between temperature variable and the basic reproduction number is analyzed. Experimental analysis methods are also used leading to achieve the desired functional relationship.
This paper, for the first time, uses profile monitoring to offer a new approach to pandemic control and management while proposing a functional relationship between environment temperature and Basic Reproduction Number. Monitoring this relationship is important in that it can indicate the occurrence of uncontrolled conditions in this relationship. Out-of-control conditions in the functional relationship between environment temperature and   mean that the variability of the pandemic functional model has changed under the influence of certain factor or factors that have not been considered by the authorities. This paper, while proving the existence of a functional relationship between the Basic Reproduction Number and the environment temperature, seeks to show that pandemic can be effectively monitored with a profile monitoring approach. In other words, a process is controlled using profile monitoring approach, and by designing a functional model. Profile monitoring is a knowledge that goes beyond production systems today and is used in other fields such as engineering, environment, biotechnology, genetics, medicine and finance (7). This research has also used experimental analysis methods to achieve the desired functional model.
The data required for the research were gathered from two valid sources. The first part of this data is related to the daily statistics of corona cases over a period of 60 days from June 18, 2020 to August 16, 2020 for 10 countries with the most affected (United States, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Spain and Iran). The second part is data about the weather conditions and average temperature parameters of the 10 countries in the mentioned period.
Results: In this research not only a profile provided based on basic reproduction number and temperature variables, but also it addressed that a pandemic condition of the community can be monitored by a profile relationship effectively. Furthermore this research showed that the variability due to abnormal factors and natural variability can be identified by the profile approach.Based on the experimental analysis, the studied countries were divided into two subsets based on the similarity of the adopted non-pharmaceutical policies. The first group includes Brazil, India, Spain, Peru and South Africa, and the second group includes Iran, the United States, Russia, Chile and Mexico. Fisher's Least Significant Difference (LSD) were used to select a subset of countries whose policies had similar results on the Basic Reproduction Number.
Before starting the profile design and monitoring phase, it was necessary to evaluate all the data used in the research. The first part of this evaluation was related to the Basic Reproduction Number data in the studied countries in the desired time period. In this section, the normality and variance of data were evaluated and confirmed. Also, to prove the suitability of profile models, it should be concluded by performing various statistical tests that the errors of the uncorrelated random variable mean is equal to zero and variance is also equal. These errors also should follow the normal distribution (8). This was also done in the data analysis section.
As a result, in order to analyze the model according to the effect of the policies adopted by governments, the research data for each group of countries studied were analyzed separately. This article examines the proposed model in two phases and analyzes the sensitivity of the proposed profile monitoring model for three different time periods in Iran. The results of this analysis show that the designed control model can monitor the pandemic conditions of Covid-19 virus well, affected by changes in temperature and show good signals of the occurrence of factors affecting the Basic Reproduction Number.
Conclusion: This paper investigated the proposed model for two phases (that is phase-I and phase-II) and analyzed the sensitivity of the proposed profile monitoring for three different time periods in Iran. The results of this analysis showed that the designed control model is capable of monitoring effectively the pandemic conditions of Qovid-19 virus using the functional relationship between an independent variable (that is temperature) and a response variable (i.e. R0) and it is capable of producing appropriate signals.Examining the functional relationship between Basic Reproduction Number and other factors affecting this important index, and continuous monitoring of this functional relationship, can provide pandemic control and management in any country with more accurate and in-depth information. So that it is possible to trace the root causes of the decrease or increase of the pandemic more effectively. In this study, the profile monitoring method was used to monitor and control the functional relationship between the Basic Reproduction Number and environment temperature. Using experimental design method and regression analysis, this paper presented a profile model for Covid-19 pandemic monitoring for Iran and several other countries. Sensitivity analysis of the proposed model and the use of three real-time timelines showed that this model could yield good results for Covid-19 pandemic managers. Obviously, this new approach can have a significant impact on the management of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: Epidemiology

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