Razi Journal of Medical Sciences

  Background : Large intestine cancer is ranked second among gastrointestinal cancers and is the fourth common cancer in Iran. The aim of this study is to map the county-level of large intestine cancer incidence rate in Iran using Area-to-Area Poisson Kriging method and also to identify the high-risk areas.

  Methods : This study was application/ecology. The methodology was illustrated using large intestine cancer data recorded in the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (in the Non-infectious diseases Management Center) of Iran during 2003-2007 related to the 336 counties. Area-to-area Poisson Kriging method has been used to estimate the parameters of the map. The softwares SpaceStat and ArcGIS9.3 have been used for analyzing the data and drawing maps.

  Results: Mean incidence rate according to area-to-area Poisson Kriging method has been estimated as 1.90. Mean incidence rate variance using the area-to-area Poisson Kriging method was estimated as 0.25. Maximum incidence rate using the area-to-area Poisson Kriging method (5.65) with variance (0.04) was related to Rasht county and minimum incidence rate (0.05) with variance (0.14) was related to Chabahar County. Minimum variance incidence rate (0.01) with risk (3.64) was related to Tehran county and maximum variance incidence rate (2.51) with risk (1.15) was related to Deir county have been estimated.

  Conclusions: The area-to-area Poisson Kriging method is recommended for estimation of disease mapping parameters as this method accounts for spatial support and pattern in irregular spatial area. The results demonstrate that the cities in the provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran have higher risk than other areas.