fa شناسایی و حذف روند های فصلی و الگوهای قابل توجیه در داد‌های نظام مراقبت بیماری مننژیت اپیدمیولوژی Epidemiology پژوهشي Research <font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font> <p class="MsoNormal" dir="rtl" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt text-align: justify line-height: normal unicode-bidi: embed direction: rtl text-justify: kashida text-kashida: 0%"><b><span 10pt="" 9.0pt="" b="" font-size:="" lang="AR-SA" mso-ansi-font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" span="" style="font-family: " times="">: </span><span .="" 10pt="" 9.0pt="" b="" class="MsoNormal" dir="rtl" fa="" face="Times New Roman" font="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ansi-font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" p="" size="3" span="" style="font-family: " times="">روش کار</span></b><span .="" 10pt="" 1389="" 1391="" 9.0pt="" 9pt="" :="" b="" dir="ltr" fa="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ansi-font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" span="" style="font-family: " times=""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> (</span><span 9pt="" b="" dir="ltr" fa="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">Locally Weight Regression and Smoothing Scoter plot</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span 10pt="" 9.0pt="" 9pt="" b="" dir="ltr" fa="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ansi-font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" span="" style="font-family: " times="">نیز جهت حذف الگوهای قابل توجیه به کارگرفته شد.</span></p> <font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font> <p class="MsoNormal" dir="rtl" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt text-align: justify line-height: normal unicode-bidi: embed direction: rtl text-justify: kashida text-kashida: 0%"><b><span 10pt="" 9.0pt="" b="" fa="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ansi-font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" span="" style="font-family: " times="">: نتایج نمودار چند جمله&rlm;ای موضعی،</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span 9pt="" b="" dir="ltr" fa="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times=""><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span 10pt="" 9.0pt="" 9pt="" b="" dir="ltr" fa="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ansi-font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" span="" style="font-family: " times="">در داده‌های مشکوک به بیماری مننژیت است. هر دو روش حذف الگوهای قابل توجیه در حذف این الگوها در داده&rlm;های موارد مشکوک به مننژیت کارآیی داشتند. به‌</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span 9pt="" b="" dir="ltr" fa="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times=""><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span 10pt="" 9.0pt="" 9pt="" b="" dir="ltr" fa="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ansi-font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" span="" style="font-family: " times=""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> در حذف الگوهای قابل توجیه و روش سری فوریه در بهبود نرمال بودن داده&rlm;ها عملکردی بهتری داشتند.</span></b></p> <b><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></b> <p class="MsoNormal" dir="rtl" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt text-align: justify line-height: normal unicode-bidi: embed direction: rtl text-justify: kashida text-kashida: 0%"><b><b><span 10pt="" 9.0pt="" b="" fa="" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ansi-font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" span="" style="font-family: " times="">: نتایج مطالعه وجود الگوهای قابل توجیه در داده‌های موارد مشکوک به مننژیت را تایید و ضرورت هموارسازی و حذف این الگوها برای شناسایی صحیح و به موقع طغیان‌ها را آشکار می‌سازد.</span></b></b></p> <b><b><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></b></b> <font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt text-align: justify line-height: normal text-justify: kashida text-kashida: 0%"><b><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">Background</span></b><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">: Addressing and removing explainable patterns from syndromic data is required to timely detection of outbreaks. This study aims to detect and remove explainable patterns of fever and neurological symptoms syndrome as suspected meningitis which has been occurred in Hamadan province.</span></p> <font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt text-align: justify line-height: normal text-justify: kashida text-kashida: 0%"><b><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">Methods</span></b><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">: </span><span 12pt="" arial="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">We analyzed data on reported cases of suspected meningitis in Hamadan province, between March 2010 and March 2013. Line, local polynomial and moving averages (MA) charts, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, mean differences and nonparametric Mann- Kendall statistics were used to identify explainable patterns in the data on suspected cases of meningitis. </span><span 12pt="" arial="" calibri="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" mso-fareast-font-family:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">Fourier series and LOWESS (Locally Weight Regression and Smoothing Scoter plot) was used to remove such patterns.</span><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times=""></span></p> <font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt text-align: justify text-justify: inter-ideograph"><font style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><font><font><font><font><b><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="line-height: 115% font-family: " times="">Results</span></b><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="line-height: 115% font-family: " times="">: </span><span 12pt="" arial="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" new="" style="line-height: 115% font-family: " times="">Local polynomial charts, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, mean differences and nonparametric Mann- Kendall statistics</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span></font><span 12pt="" arial="" dir="rtl" font-size:="" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" new="" style="line-height: 115% font-family: " times=""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> </span></font><span 12pt="" arial="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" new="" style="line-height: 115% font-family: " times="">indicated the presence of explainable patterns include Day-of- Week (DOW), weekend, holiday effects, seasonality and temporal trend in the syndromic data of fever and neurological symptoms. </span></font></font></font><span 12pt="" arial="" calibri="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" mso-fareast-font-family:="" new="" style="line-height: 115% font-family: " times=""><font><font>Overall, LOWESS </font><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><font>in removing explainable patterns and </font></span>Fourier series in improve of normality data </font></font></font><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">have had better performance.</font></span></span><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="line-height: 115% font-family: " times=""></span></p> <font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt text-align: justify line-height: normal text-justify: kashida text-kashida: 0%"><b><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">Conclusion</span></b><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">: </span><span 12pt="" arial="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">Results showed the </span><span 12pt="" arial="" calibri="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" mso-fareast-font-family:="" new="" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34) font-family: " times="">presence of </span><span 12pt="" arial="" calibri="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-theme-font:="" mso-fareast-font-family:="" new="" style="font-family: " times="">explainable patterns in the data of suspected cases of meningitis. Accordingly, timely and accurately detection of meningitis&#39; outbreak required data smoothing.</span><span 12pt="" font-size:="" mso-bidi-language:="" new="" style="font-family: " times=""></span></p> <font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font> مننژیت, طغیان, الگوهای فصلی, هموارسازی, نظام مراقبت. Meningitis, Outbreak, Seasonal patterns, Smoothing, Surveillance system 18 27 http://rjms.iums.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-1635&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Kabat Pazhouhi خباث پژوهی 3900319475328460043469 3900319475328460043469 No Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran دانشگاه علوم پزشکی همدان، همدان، ایران Manoochehr Karami منوچهر کرمی 3900319475328460043470 3900319475328460043470 Yes Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran دانشگاه علوم پزشکی همدان، همدان، ایران Nader Esmailnasab نادر اسماعیل نسب 3900319475328460043471 3900319475328460043471 No Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Kurdistan, Iran دانشگاه علوم پزشکی سنندج، سنندج، ایران Abbas Moghim Biygi عباس مقیم بیگی 3900319475328460043472 3900319475328460043472 No Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran دانشگاه علوم پزشکی همدان، همدان، ایران Mohammad Fariadras محمد فریادرس 3900319475328460043473 3900319475328460043473 No Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran دانشگاه علوم پزشکی همدان، همدان، ایران